What a backtest here is, and what it is not

A backtest replays a fixed rule over 12 months of real closes against the S&P 500. It is history, not a promise.

A backtest on Monvera is a replay: a fixed rule run over 12 months of real daily closes, rebalanced monthly, plotted against buying and holding the S&P 500 over the same window. Every rule is published in full, the raw numbers are public at /api/strategies and /api/themes, and you can reproduce the weights yourself. None of it forecasts anything. It is history.

What is open

Book	What it is	Public at
Steady Foundation	Every tokenized fund, weighted inversely to its own volatility, 30% cap per fund	monvera.best/strategies
Momentum Leaders	The 8 strongest uptrends where the 1-year and 3-month returns are both positive, inverse-volatility weighted, 20% cap	monvera.best/strategies
Balanced Growth	A 55% market core blended with 45% of the Momentum Leaders sleeve	monvera.best/strategies
Eight theme baskets	AI, semiconductors, quantum, space, crypto-linked stocks, cloud and software, energy, fintech, each inverse-volatility weighted with a 25% cap	monvera.best/themes

Every one of these is a deterministic rule, not a daily human call and not Vera’s judgment. That is what makes replaying them meaningful: the same inputs produce the same book every time, so the history you see is the rule’s history rather than a story told about it afterwards. Each is refreshed from market data every 6 hours.

What walk-forward means

The open books are tested walk-forward, which is the version of a backtest that is harder to cheat.

The engine takes 12 months of daily closes. The first stretch is formation: the rule is allowed to look at it, and nothing is scored. Then, month by month across the remaining stretch, the rule re-runs using only the closes that existed at that moment, sets its weights, and is held to them until the next rebalance. Those months are scored. The rule never sees a price before the day it would really have had it.

The result is plotted against buy-and-hold S&P 500 over the identical window, so the comparison is like for like rather than against a benchmark measured over a friendlier period.

What a backtest does not include

Being honest about the gaps matters more than the curve:

It does not know the future. It scores a rule on the market that already happened. The next 12 months are a different market.
It replays closes, not your fills. The curve marks positions at daily closing prices. What you actually pay is a live quote at the moment you invest.
It is short. Twelve months is one market regime, and a rule that looks strong across one regime can be exactly wrong in the next.
It cannot cover everything. Assets with no honest 12-month public history, mostly tokenized private companies and tickers that collide with an unrelated listing, are excluded and named on the page. They are never filled in with invented data.

Vera’s plans get the same treatment

When Vera builds you a plan, the same engine backtests that specific mix: 12 months of real closes, monthly rebalance, against buy-and-hold S&P 500. If part of the plan has no honest history, the response says what share of the weight was actually covered and names what was left out, rather than quietly testing a smaller basket and calling it the plan. Ask for the Steady Growth plan and you will see its curve next to the benchmark, with those caveats attached.

You

How would the AI basket have done over the past year?

Vera

Here is the walk-forward result against the S&P 500, with the full weight rule and the two names excluded for having no honest 12-month history. It is what the rule did, not what it will do.

Pull the raw numbers

All three routes are public, no token. /api/strategies allows 30 requests per 60 seconds per IP, /api/themes 120, and /api/backtest 20.

curl
fetch

# Strategies with their walk-forward backtests
curl "https://monvera.best/api/strategies"

# Theme baskets, weights, exclusions and backtests
curl "https://monvera.best/api/themes"

# Backtest a rule yourself
curl -X POST "https://monvera.best/api/backtest" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"strategy":"momentum-leaders"}'

const strategies = await (
  await fetch("https://monvera.best/api/strategies")
).json();

const themes = await (await fetch("https://monvera.best/api/themes")).json();

Each payload carries the rule in words, the current weights, the exclusions by name, and the backtest with its benchmark series, so you can check the arithmetic instead of trusting the picture.